The Expose:
"Retailers and consumers think the ₹2-₹3 surge this month is just the Government's Tax. It’s not. While the Feb 2026 excise duty hike provided the reason, Indian tobacco giants are now using the May 'price revision' to pad their own margins.
The Math on the Street:
Feb 2026: Prices rose to cover the 30-40% excise jump.
May 2026: A secondary hike is hitting the kiosks. This isn't just tax; it's a strategic move by manufacturers to protect their EBITDA against falling volumes.
The Risk: By pushing prices toward the ₹15 Psychological Ceiling, companies are playing a dangerous game. At the Delhi kiosks, the labor class is already reaching a breaking point. When you hide profit hikes inside tax hikes, the consumer eventually stops buying.
The Growth Ledger's Verdict:
Manufacturers are betting that 'Addiction' is stronger than 'Inflation.' But on the ground, we see 'Down-trading' (shifting to cheaper brands) starting today. The 'Value' segment is about to explode."